Conferences at Asia House can always be relied on to shake up minds stuck in the rut of received wisdom and hackneyed sound bites. After gorging myself with no fewer than two (divine) cinnamon and apple pastries and several (large) cups of coffee, it soon became apparent that the Asia Risk Outlook 2012 conference would be no exception.

In the panel on market risk, Danny Quah, renowned professor of economics at the LSE, wielded some interesting myth-debunking wisdom. Two points that stood out were:

• People over-exaggerate the problem of over-investment in China and the growth of ‘ghost towns’. Consumption trends are actually looking very healthy. In the richer parts of China, consumption is actually growing at an annual rate of 15%
• The West can no longer be viewed simplistically as the keystone of the global economy. Germany – the only non-stagnating developed economy – has based its success on exports to Asia. It now exports 50% more to developing Asia than it does to the USA. Moreover, we should not underestimate the amount of de-coupling of Asia from developed economies: China now runs a trade deficit with 44 Asian IMF countries.

An interesting discussion at Asia House this morning on the market risks that currently shape Asia. Moderating and opening the discussion was the ever-impressive Parag Khanna. He kicked off proceedings by questioning the very notion of Asia as an entity. Parag pointed out that there are 13 different geographical definitions of “Asia” so terminological confusion is one risk to be aware of. The BRICs label is a good example of this where, by conveniently lumping together a group of four very different states, there is a danger of losing what each one is all about. He warned that it is a mistake to overstate Asian unity, just because it may be the current way of thinking. “Chindia” anyone?

Fraser Nelson interviews Black Swan author Nassim Taleb in this week’s Spectator. Taleb warns that the UK’s Quantitative Easing programme could have serious inflationary consequences in the future. “It’s like a ketchup bottle. you try to pour money out of the ketchup bottle: nothing comes out, nothing comes out – and then everything splashes. Every single person who has tried QE, or a form of printing money, has effectively lost the argument. Turkey had it, Brazil had it, Argentina had it, Italy had it when they debased the Lira. Even Weimar Germany claimed that QE made the government rich … We have a 90 per cent chance of seeing nothing and 10 per cent of having an explosion.”

Capitalism is in crisis. I know this not because the waiter tried to charge me £12.75 for a cup of tea and an espresso (“I’m so sorry, of course you didn’t order the bread basket and olives” – nice try), but because Loretta Napoleoni, esteemed economist and author of Maonomics (released February 14th), was telling me so.

For her, the West has too long been trapped in battles of ideological dogma when it comes to economic policy (contrast this with China’s willingness to adapt its economic model to suit the specific needs of the times). Nowehere is this plainer to see than in the wranglings over the Eurozone debt crisis. Neither harsh austerity, nor a full-blown Keynsian stimulus is the solution. Instead, what is needed is a middle ground that places social equity at its heart. Government should create incentives for large scale investments in projects that produce tangible social benefits (e.g. clean energy). Monetary easing should provide the initial jump-start to get the projects off the ground. This would then encourage the private sector, which is currently sitting on large piles of cash, to loosen its purse strings and get in on the action as well. However, lack of vision is preventing people from leaving their entrenched positions and finding a way to harmonise the interests of government, private business and society at large.

Loretta Napoleoni’s books include Maonomics: Why Chinese Communists Make Better Capitalists Than We Do (2012), Rogue Economics (2008) and Terrorism and the Economy: How the War on Terror is Bankrupting the World (2010)

On Monday night we co-hosted another thought-provoking discussion at Asia House, focusing on the two big economic beasts of the region, China and India. There was a great turn-out for the discussion between Alan Rosling, former executive director of Tata Sons Ltd and George Magnus, senior economics advisor to UBS, moderated by the Sunday Times’ David Smith.

China is often seen as the ‘one to watch’ to become the major super-power on the global stage but, as George Magnus pointed out, it is very difficult to predict what will happen in a country with such a dramatically ageing population. While it took the West 100 years to double its proportion of over-60s from 7% to 15%, China has reached that level in 20 years, and with a significantly lower average wage. This makes it difficult to draw parallels and anticipate what happens next.

This was only one of the topics raised in the fascinating discussion that covered everything from corruption to co-operation between the two states and the big question – which would be the more successful in the long term. On this, the mood in the room was that India would overtake China.